Investor Capitulation, Part 1

“Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it.” – Warren Buffett.

I do not believe in the concept of market timing, because no one knows what the short term direction of the stock market will be. An educated guess is about the best anyone can make. That is why a buy and hold strategy, using a well diversified portfolio, works best for most investors.

Given their own, sometimes naïve, perceptions, investors can become either too optimistic or too pessimistic. Unfortunately, it is typically easier to identify these times after the fact.

It is very easy to make predictions that turn out wrong, even if you are very knowledgeable.

For example, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned about “irrational exuberance” in 1996. He clearly thought that the high stock prices of 1996 could not be justified. Nevertheless, the stock market went up in 1996, 1997, 1998 and 1999. Eventually, in March of 2000, stock prices began their steep decline. Needless to say, if you had heeded “Financial Guru” Greenspan’s warning in 1996, you would have lost out on 3 – 4 years of profitable gains.

In October 2002, after stock prices had fallen almost 50% from their previous highs, a lot of investors “threw in the towel” and basically gave up on stocks. They sold their holdings and stayed out of the stock market for several years. Many of those investors compounded their mistake by switching from equity mutual funds to variable annuities. (That is a topic for another post.)

Let’s assume that, right now, given the current economic climate, the majority of investors are pretty pessimistic about the future. How can we tell? There have been plenty of indicators. Stock prices have already declined more than 35% from their year-ago highs. Banks have been afraid to lend to each other. Institutional investors (pensions, university endowments) have been pulling massive amounts of money out of hedge funds. Many individual investors have been heavily selling mutual funds. And many people, and institutions, have flocked to short-term Treasury securities,  because they are known to be extremely safe investments, albeit very low yielding ones.

Now, suppose stock prices continue to fall, resulting in investors becoming even more pessimistic than they already are. How could this happen? Well, what if so many investors decided to redeem their accounts that hedge funds needed to sell off even larger amounts of stocks, bonds, and commodities just to fulfill the investors’ demands. What if individual investors continued to sell their stocks and mutual funds, only doing it in greater amounts and with far more urgency?

Panic Versus Capitulation

What is this called? Well, panic is one term. Capitulation would be another. You may be hearing this particular term more often now. What would capitulation look like? Probably like the end of the world. The Dow Jones Industrial Average would fall by 800 – 1,000 points or more in a single day. And just suppose that that the selloff continued for a second day. Imagine the ominous discussion on TV. Investors would feel discouraged, disgusted and positively sick. One reaction might be, “Get me out now, at any price!”

If that happens, and there are certainly no assurances that it won’t, then this may in fact be the best possible time to buy more stock. Of course, it is very difficult to even consider buying when prices are actually plummeting and everyone is afraid. (You should note that it is incorrect to say that there are “more sellers than buyers.” In point of fact, there is a buyer for every seller, or more aptly put, each share to be sold will be bought. It is just that the sellers are willing to accept lower stock prices than previously was the case.)

I do not know if the capitulation phase of the bear market will occur. In Prepare for the Revulsion Stage  Janice Dorn, Chief Global Risk Strategist, Ingenieux Wealth Management, Sydney, Australia predicts that capitulation of investors will probably happen. Here’s how she envisions it.

Now, we are likely to see a washout where just about everyone who has not sold will give up and sell. They will walk away from the markets and vow never to return again. This will be the complete revulsion stage. Only when this happens will the markets be in a position to begin to rebuild the technical damage. This will take time, and it now appears that the highs in the broad indices have been seen for many years to come.

People will have nightmares about the Great Crash of 2008 for years to come. They will lose trust in the entire financial system and in many of their advisors who allowed their accounts to lose somewhere between 25% and 50%. The small retail trader will leave the markets in disgust and distrust.

Dorn’s description is quite graphic. And she is saying that it is likely to happen. Make no mistake, she is predicting a once-in-a-generation change in investor perception. We’ll see if this extreme reaction comes to pass.

But please remember that stock market lows can only be identified in retrospect. Moreover, for people who follow a buy and hold approach, all of this may be of only intellectual interest. On the other hand, knowing that this kind of panic behavior can happen may steel you not to join the herd in selling at what may just be the wrong time.

photo credit: Bitterroot