I will increase cash and bond positions when warranted, usually by 5 or 10%. Of course I feel axious being in cash and if I am wrong try to get back in at a level of where I got out. I think it would take an A Bomb for me to say “sell everything” but in stressful times raising cash does help mitigate some damage and also lets the client know that you are aware of their concerns.

When I started in this business many years ago I recall the wholesalers showing those darn charts about missing the market moves and now you have the leveraged ETFs to use so that the prescient trader can take advantage of those outsized moves.

The public does need to understand that investing and accumulation are not things which are like… rocket science and that common sense goes a long way in helping you achieve your goals. Have a nice core in the portfolio and allow the fringes to add or subtract marginal value.

You’re right of course. The numbers are somewhat misleading, because it would be difficult to be out of the market at just the wrong times. On the other hand, the buy-and-hold numbers are good enough on their own to suggest that trying to time the market is unnecessary.

Do you attempt to time stock market swings? If not, how do you convince people that getting in and out of the market is a losing strategy?

Roger

All these numbers that show the dangers of being out of the market are of course used by those who benefit from the public being invested and those who show the benefit of being out of the market benefit from……….. I am not sure..